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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located in the east Pacific, well southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

1. Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a broad low pressure system located a few hundred
miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Additional development
is expected, and a tropical depression will likely form later
tonight or tomorrow. The system is forecast to move very slowly
west-northwestward, parallel to but offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico for the next several days. Interests along the
southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system. For additional information on this system, please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form off the southern coast
of Mexico by the middle of next week. Thereafter, environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
the disturbance. A tropical depression could form during the middle
to latter part of next week while moving west-northwestward to
northwestward, near or parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


Forecaster Reinhart