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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located in the east Pacific, well southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

1. Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP99):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad low
pressure system located a few hundred miles off the coast of
southwestern Mexico is gradually becoming better organized.
Additional development is expected, and a tropical depression will
likely form later today or tomorrow. The system is forecast to move
very slowly west-northwestward, parallel to but offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico for the next several days. Interests
along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form off the south coast of
Mexico by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of the disturbance
thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward to
northwestward near or parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



Forecaster D. Zelinsky