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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located in the east Pacific, well southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

1. Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of southwestern
Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Further development
is expected, and a tropical depression will likely form later today
or tomorrow. The system is forecast to move very slowly
west-northwestward, parallel to but offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico for the next several days. Interests along the
southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form off the south coast of
Mexico by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of the disturbance
thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward to
northwestward near or parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster D. Zelinsky