ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Storm Erin, located a few hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands in the eastern tropical Atlantic.

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located a few
hundred miles to the south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. While
current shower and thunderstorm activity with the system remains
limited, this system is drifting over the warm waters of the Gulf
Stream, and some tropical or subtropical development could occur
over the next day or two. By the middle of this week, the system is
expected to move northward over cooler waters, ending its chances
for further tropical development. For more information on this
system, see High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Central Atlantic (AL96):
A weak surface trough of low pressure located over the central
Atlantic is interacting with an upper-level trough, producing
scattered disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Significant development of this system appears unlikely over the
next few days as the system drifts generally northward, remaining
over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

3. Northeastern Gulf:
A weak surface trough in the northeastern Gulf near the Florida
Panhandle is associated with a broad area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. While development of this system is not
anticipated before it moves inland, locally heavy rainfall could
produce flash-flooding along portions of the Florida Panhandle over
the next day or so. For more information of the rainfall hazards
related to this system, please see the products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.



Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Erin are issued under WMO header
WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on
Tropical Storm Erin are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


Forecaster Papin