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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Recent satellite wind data indicate the tropical wave located over
the eastern Caribbean Sea still lacks a closed circulation, but
continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms near and to the east of the wave axis. Compared to
yesterday, surface observations suggest the circulation is gradually
becoming better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast
to become a little more conducive for development as the system
slows its forward motion. A tropical depression or storm is now
likely to form over the next day or two as it moves into the central
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the next
couple of days. Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and
Cuba should monitor its progress as there is a risk of heavy rain
and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this week. For
addition information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


Forecaster Papin