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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms have become slightly better organized
since yesterday in association with a tropical wave located just
west of the Windward Islands over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
However, surface observations indicate the disturbance still lacks a
closed circulation. The system is moving quickly westward at 20 to
25 mph, which will likely limit its development over the next day or
so. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
favorable for development as the wave slows down over the central
Caribbean Sea, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the middle to latter portion of this week. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to
continue for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands through
Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Reinhart