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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

1. Central and Western Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is showing
signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become more favorable for development later today or tonight,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Thursday or Friday
while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across
the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. East of the Leeward Islands:
A tropical wave located about 100 miles east of the Leeward Islands
is producing concentrated, but disorganized, showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some development over the next few days as the wave
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the latter
part of this week, the system is expected to slow down and turn
northwestward, and a tropical depression could form late this week
when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the
Bahamas. Regardless of development, gusty winds and heavy rainfall
are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight
and Tuesday, and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late Tuesday and
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Forecaster Beven