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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

1. Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of showers
and thunderstorms. Earlier satellite-derived surface wind data
depicted that the system does not have a well-defined center.
Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional
development over the next day or so while the system moves
west-southwestward at around 15 mph and a short-lived tropical
depression could form. By the end of the week, environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Kelly