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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erin, located several hundred miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands.

1. Southwestern Gulf (AL98):
Recent geostationary and microwave satellite imagery indicates that
shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of
organization with a small area of low pressure located over the
southwestern Gulf. An earlier Air Force reconnaissance mission found
that the system lacks a well-defined low-level circulation. The low
is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward across the
western Gulf during the next day or so, and environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for further development. A tropical
depression could form before this system moves inland over
northeastern Mexico or southern Texas by late Friday. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next few days.
Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Friday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Forecaster Hagen/Papin