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Archive for the ‘Hurricanes’ Category

Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tomorrow Afternoon and Tomorrow Night; Unsettled Start to the New Year – Gulf Coast Storm Center


Figure 1. 5-day quantitative precipitation forecast | Credit: Weatherbell

Tonight: lows will range from the mid 50s to around 60.

Tomorrow: Rain chances increase ahead of a slow moving front. Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s, and only drop a couple of degrees overnight.

Heavy Rain, Flood Threat: The front will meander through the weekend, keeping wet weather in place. Currently, accumulations of 2 – 4″ are expected through the weekend, with locally higher amounts being possible. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all of  Escambia County and inland Santa Rosa County; it goes into effect tomorrow afternoon, and continues through tomorrow night. The heaviest of the rain will fall tomorrow night and Friday.

Severe Threat: There could be an isolated strong/severe storm tomorrow afternoon/tomorrow night, as well during the day Friday. Areas from the Santa Rosa-Okaloosa line west to the FL-AL border have been included in a “marginal” risk area tomorrow. The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds and possibly an isolated tornado or two.

Wet Start to the New Year:  An unsettled start to the new year is looking likely. However, details have yet to be ironed out. Right now, an additional 1 – 2″ of rain appears to be a good bet, though.


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Marginal Severe Weather Threat this Morning; Unsettled Weather to Continue into the New Year – Gulf Coast Storm Center


Figure 1. Radar snapshot from 9: 36 AM this morning.

Rest of Today: The band of storms will continue to work across the area for the remainder of the morning, bringing heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning. By about 1 – 2 PM this afternoon, the line should be east of us. However, rain will continue to be likely along/ahead of a slow moving front. Rainfall totals of 2 – 4″ still expected. Temperatures will rise into the lower 70s.

The flash flood watch is set to expire at noon.

Marginal Severe Threat: There is a “marginal” risk for severe weather in place for the area this morning. However, the severe weather threat is very low, and we will likely be “trimmed” from the risk area later this morning after the line passes.

Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for this morning.

The main threat is localized damaging wind gusts, though a brief tornado can’t be ruled out.

Tonight: Rain chances remain high. Lows will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

This Weekend: The frontal boundary is going to stall out for the duration of the weekend; this will keep rain in the forecast. Activity will be more scattered, though. Expect highs in the mid/upper 60s to lower 70s both Saturday and Sunday, with temperatures continuing in the upper 50s to lower 60s overnight.

Unsettled Start to the New Year: A potent upper-level short-wave will lift out of the the Southern Plains into Lower Mississippi Valley and Western Tennessee Valley New Year’s Eve, along with an associated surface low. This will bring another front toward our area, which also looks to stall through at least the middle of the week, keeping wet, unsettled weather in place.

Overall, an additional 1 – 3″ of rain now appears likely at this time. There could also be some strong/severe storms Monday.

Turning Colder: It looks like a cold but drier air mass will move in by the latter half of the week next week, ending the streak of wet weather.


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The post Marginal Severe Weather Threat this Morning; Unsettled Weather to Continue into the New Year appeared first on Pensacola Area Weather.

The post Marginal Severe Weather Threat this Morning; Unsettled Weather to Continue into the New Year appeared first on Gulf Coast Storm Center.



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More Heavy Rain Wednesday – Thursday; Turning Cooler, Drier by Friday – Gulf Coast Storm Center


Figure 1. Surface forecast for 6 PM Monday.

Rest of today: We will be dealing with scattered to numerous showers and storms again, with a lower chance for rain tonight. Temps will peak in the lower 70s this afternoon, and will only fall into the mid/upper 60s overnight.

New Year’s Eve (Tomorrow): Highs will continue to range in the lower 70s and lows in the 60s. With a new front approaching from the west, rain chances remain high. However, it won’t be a complete washout. The latest short-range, high resolution guidance does suggest the best chance for shower/storms will be during the evening, though. It also looks like the threat for any strong/severe storms will remain to our west.

New Year’s Day (Tuesday): The front is progged to stall in the region. This will keep wet, unsettled weather in place through the middle of the week. Daytime highs will once again be in the 70s, with 60s for nighttime lows.

Wednesday – Thursday: Another round of widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms is in store, with an area of low pressure set to track across the area Thursday.

QPF: Overall, an additional 1 – 3″ of rain appears likely through Thursday, with the bulk of that coming Wednesday into Thursday. Amounts generally less than 1″ are now expected for New Year’s Eve/Day.

Friday into the weekend: High pressure will build in the wake of the mid/late week storm system, allowing cooler and drier air to filter in.


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The post More Heavy Rain Wednesday – Thursday; Turning Cooler, Drier by Friday appeared first on Pensacola Area Weather.

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Clearing Skies Tonight; Temps Begin to Moderate Tomorrow – Gulf Coast Storm Center


Figure 1. Forecast for tonight from NWS Mobile.

Tonight: The low-level clouds that have stuck with us today will completely clear tonight, allowing for temperatures to bottom out in the mid 30s to around 40.

This weekend: Tomorrow will be nice with plenty of sunshine and highs in the mid/upper 50s. By tomorrow night temps will start to moderate, with lows ranging in the mid/upper 40s. A shortwave will pass to our north Sunday, sending a weak cold front across the area overnight; this will cause an increase cloud cover. A passing shower or two will also be possible. High temps Sunday will run in the mid to upper 60s. Lows will be in the mid/upper 40s again Sunday night.

Figure 2. GEFS projected high/lows over the next 16 days | Credit: Weatherbell

Christmas Eve: High pressure will build across the area in the wake of Sunday’s front, allowing for cooler, drier air to filter in. However, at least some clouds will stick around, as the aforementioned front will stall to our south. Max temps should range in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with lows staying in the 40s.

Christmas Day: The high pressure is going to shift eastward. This will allow for a return flow to develop, resulting in an increase in temps. Highs should be in the 60s, with lows in the 50s Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Wednesday: The chance for showers/thunderstorms will begin to increase by mid-week, as a strong frontal passage is projected.


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Weak Front to Move Through Tomorrow; Rain/Storms Return After Christmas – Gulf Coast Storm Center


Figure 1. GFS predicted MSLP and 6-hour precipitation rate valid Thursday morning | Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Tonight: Temperatures will range from the lower/mid 40s north to around along the immediate coast. Cloud cover will begin to increase as a weak front approaches from the west.

Tomorrow: Skies will be partly cloudy tomorrow as the front moves through the area. There will also be a chance of a passing shower or two. Highs will climb into the mid 60s to lower 70s, which is well above normal for this time of year. Lows will be in the 40s overnight/Monday morning. The front should move through late tomorrow evening/tomorrow night.

Christmas Eve: Sunday’s front will move offshore; in its wake, high pressure will build in. This will bring cooler/drier air for our Monday. Temps will be in the mid/upper 50s to lower 60s. Overnight, temps will once again  be in the upper 40s to around 50.

Christmas Day: High pressure will shift to our east in response to a trough digging into the Plains, setting up a return flow. This will cause another uptick in temperatures. Daytime temperatures look to range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Thursday through Saturday: The trough is going to eject northeast, out of Plains on Thursday. This will bring a front toward the area, and substantially increase rain chances. Widespread showers/storms are looking likely, along with heavy rain (see figure 1). A severe weather threat also appears possible; it is too early to know if this threat will materialize, however.

Rain will continue into the weekend, and possibly into early next week, as the front is porgged to stall.


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Pleasant Weather Tomorrow; Post-Christmas Storm System to Bring Heavy Rain – Gulf Coast Storm Center


Figure 1. 7-day QPF from the Weather Prediction Center | Credit: Pivotal Weather

Rest of Today/This Evening: A mix of sun and clouds will continue as a weak front — currently located over southeast lower Mississippi Valley — continues to advance toward the area. An isolated shower or two will will be possible. Temps are currently in the upper 60s to around 70, and will only drop a couple of degrees this evening. Passage of the front looks to be between 8 – 10 PM based on short-range model guidance.

Tonight:  A drier and cooler air mass will filter in. Temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 40s.

Christmas Eve: Surface high pressure, which will settle in the wake of today’s front, will result in pleasant weather. Expect rain-free conditions, ample sunshine, and highs in the upper 50s to around 60.

Christmas Day: Quiet weather will carry over into Tuesday. However, a return flow will setup, causing an increase in clouds. Temperatures will moderate some again, rising into the the mid/upper 60s to lower 70s during the day, with night-time lows in the mid 40s inland to around 50 at the coast.

Post-Christmas Storm System: A storm system ejecting northeast out of the Plains is going to send a cold front toward the area Wednesday night and Thursday. Moisture will be advected (drawn) north along/ahead of the frontal boundary; this supports a significant increase in showers/thunderstorms.

Widespread heavy rain is likely. The front is progged to stall into the weekend, and possibly early next week, which means there could be a threat for flash flooding. The latest quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is calling for rainfall amounts of 4 – 5″ for our area (see figure 1).

There also appears to be some potential for some strong/severe storms Thursday. However, there is some uncertainty due to some slight differences between the ECMWF and GFS.


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The post Pleasant Weather Tomorrow; Post-Christmas Storm System to Bring Heavy Rain appeared first on Pensacola Area Weather.

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Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tomorrow Afternoon and Tomorrow Night; Unsettled Start to the New Year – Gulf Coast Storm Center


Figure 1. 5-day quantitative precipitation forecast | Credit: Weatherbell

Tonight: lows will range from the mid 50s to around 60.

Tomorrow: Rain chances increase ahead of a slow moving front. Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s, and only drop a couple of degrees overnight.

Heavy Rain, Flood Threat: The front will meander through the weekend, keeping wet weather in place. Currently, accumulations of 2 – 4″ are expected through the weekend, with locally higher amounts being possible. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all of  Escambia County and inland Santa Rosa County; it goes into effect tomorrow afternoon, and continues through tomorrow night. The heaviest of the rain will fall tomorrow night and Friday.

Severe Threat: There could be an isolated strong/severe storm tomorrow afternoon/tomorrow night, as well during the day Friday. Areas from the Santa Rosa-Okaloosa line west to the FL-AL border have been included in a “marginal” risk area tomorrow. The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds and possibly an isolated tornado or two.

Wet Start to the New Year:  An unsettled start to the new year is looking likely. However, details have yet to be ironed out. Right now, an additional 1 – 2″ of rain appears to be a good bet, though.


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The post Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tomorrow Afternoon and Tomorrow Night; Unsettled Start to the New Year appeared first on Pensacola Area Weather.

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Threat for Strong to Severe Storms to Ring in 2019 – Gulf Coast Storm Center


Figure 1. HRRR simulated radar for 12 PM CST this afternoon. Credit: Weatherbell

Initially, we expect storms to form along an eastward moving front late this morning and early this afternoon.

Meanwhile, a broken band of storms will also evolve during the afternoon/evening hours (see figure 1). This band will move in tandem with the front. However, it will weaken going into the late evening and overnight, as the better dynamics shift northeast.

With a strong low-level jet in place over the lower Mississippi Valley, a few strong to severe storms are likely to ring in 2019.

Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for today and tonight.

The Storm Prediction center has included part of east Louisiana, and much of Mississippi and Alabama, in a level 1 (marginal) risk area. Additionally, all of east Mississippi and northwest Alabama have also been placed in a level 2 (slight) risk area.

The main concern with any strong/severe storms will be tornado potential. But damaging winds will also be a threat.


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Multiple Storm Systems to Keep Unsettled Pattern in Place into the New Year – Gulf Coast Storm Center


Figure 1. Loop of GFS predicted MSLP (pressure) and 6-hour accum. precipitation from Monday through Friday | Credit: Tropical Tidbits

A unsettled weather pattern is going to continue into the New Year, with two more storm systems set to impact the Gulf Coast States.

The front that moved through yesterday is still expected to stall along the north-central Gulf Coast through the weekend, keeping rain chances high.

Monday – Tuesday:

New Year’s Eve, a surface low is going to track from the Southern Plains and to the Tennessee Valley. The surface low will bring a second trailing front east. Like the last front, this one will also stall along the central Gulf Coast. This will keep wet, unsettled weather in place for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.

Some strong to severe storms appear to be possible again Monday as well, with a strong low-level jet expected to overspread the lower Mississippi Valley. However, it is too early to get into specifics.

 

Wednesday – Friday:

By Wednesday, an upper-level low is going to develop over Texas and shift across the Thursday and Friday. It also looks like a surface low will develop over the Gulf in response, and track along the Gulf Coast in tandem with upper low (see figure 1).

This will bring another round of widespread precipitation.

Day 9 image not available
Figure 2. Latest 7-day QPF from the WPC.

Overall, an additional 2 – 4″ of rain seems probable for southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and south and central Alabama (see figure 2). When combined with recent rains, this will result in a renewed/continued threat for (flash) flooding.


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Line of Strong to Severe Storms to Sweep East Tonight into Tomorrow – Gulf Coast Storm Center


Figure 1. Severe weather outlook for today.

A  line of strong/severe storms is going to sweep east tonight through tomorrow, and will be followed up by heavy rain/flood threat through weekend.

Severe Threat: 

A line of strong to severe storms is going to form in central Texas, along and west of I-35. This line will be located near/ahead of an eastward moving front; it will work across south Texas and western Louisiana overnight and tomorrow morning. During the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow, the line will progress into central and east Louisiana and Mississippi.

Figure 2. NAM 3km simulated radar animation through 12 AM CST Friday | Crdit: Pivotal Weather

By the time the squall gets into Mississippi, it should begin to weaken and slow, as the front will slow.

The Storm Prediction Center has hatched an “enhanced” risk area for parts of south and central Texas today, and a “slight” risk area for portion of Louisiana and southwest Mississippi tomorrow.

The main threat with this squall line will be damaging winds and a tornado or two. There will be a greater tornado threat with storms that develop ahead of the front, across central and southeast Texas, from mid/late morning through the afternoon, where a strong low-level jet will be in place.

Heavy Rain:

The front is going to become nearly stationary tomorrow night/Friday, along the central Gulf Coast. This will lead to a high precipitable water (PWAT) values through the weekend into early next week, and thus periods of rain, which will be moderate to heavy at times.

Figure 3. Latest QPF from the Weather Prediction Center | Credit: Pivotal Weather

The latest QPF outlook from theWPC now has the highest rainfall totals occurring from Southeast Louisiana into Alabama. Rainfall accumulations of 3 – 5″ are likely, with locally higher amounts possible. This, combined with how wet this region has been as of late, will create a threat for flooding. However, any flooding looks to be mostly nuisance flooding at this time.


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The post Line of Strong to Severe Storms to Sweep East Tonight into Tomorrow appeared first on Gulf Coast Storm Center.



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