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Archive for the ‘Guidance Messages’ Category

Disturbance 95L – Guidance Messages – Hurricane Network


Special Disturbance Guidance Message 1
The Hurricane Network New York NY        AL952018 
600 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2018

This special message issuance is to begin the discussion on 
Disturbance 95L. 

At 600 PM EDT (2200 UTC), Disturbance 95L is currently located at 
10.3N and 36.5W with sustained winds at 25 kts and a central 
pressure estimated at 1009 mb. 

Disturbance 95L remains disorganized due to very dry air in the 
proximity of the system. However, satellite data indicates a low-
level center is starting to form which indicates a tropical 
depression could soon be classified. Overall, some tropical storm-
force gusts have been estimated within the most intensive convection 
areas. 

ASCAT-B data indicates a low-level center is forming near the 
intense convection near 10.2N/37.1W. Surface winds are estimated to 
be in the range of 25 kt (30 mph). 

The recent 18z model guidance is in pretty good agreement through 
the entire forecast cycle in terms of track guidance which steers 
the storm around a high pressure system to the north of the system 
and moves the system towards the west-northwest. The track guidance 
brings disturbed weather over the Windward Islands, Virgin Islands, 
and Puerto Rico by 120 hr. In terms of intensity guidance, the 
envelope takes the system towards tropical storm status within 72 
hr. 

The limited factors of this system obtaining tropical cyclone status 
would be the dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer and 
increasing vertical shear near the Lesser Antilles. SHIPS guidance 
indicates shear by day 4 could approach 35 to 40 kt. 

Interests in the Lesser Antilles and Windward Islands should monitor 
the progress of this system. 

NHC is noting a possible low-level reconnaissance mission on Friday. 

Repeating the current position as of 600 PM EDT (2200 UTC), 
Disturbance 95L is currently located at 10.3N and 36.5W with 
sustained winds at 25 kts and a central pressure estimated at 1009 
mb. 

The next Disturbance Guidance Message on this system will be at 1100 
AM EDT. Additional information on formation chances can be found on 
the Tropical Cyclone Outlook product issued by The Hurricane 
Network. 



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