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Archive for the ‘Guidance Messages’ Category

Disturbance 90L – Guidance Messages – Hurricane Network


SPECIAL Disturbance Guidance Message 1
The Hurricane Network New York NY        AL902018 
130 AM EDT Tue May 22 2017

Special issuance to begin discussion on 90L, a full guidance message 
will be issued at 1100 AM EDT. 

At 130 AM EDT (0530 UTC), Disturbance 90L is currently located at 
17.9N and 85.6W with sustained winds at 25 kts and a central 
pressure estimated at 1009 mb. 

Recent satellite data indicates a broad area of low pressure has 
formed associated with an upper-level trough extending from Florida 
to the Yucatan Peninsula. Environmental conditions are currently not 
favorable for tropical cyclone formation but conditions are expected 
to become favorable later this week. As of the latest TCO, there is 
a moderate chance in the next five days for this system to form. 

Recent pass of ASCAT-B indicates an area of low pressure has formed.
Satellite data confirms winds on the western side of the disturbance 
is around 25 kt with higher gusts to near gale-force. 

Early model guidance for this system indicates a movement towards to 
the northwest for the next several days, there is currently limited 
guidance to project possible intensity and track outside the next 48 
hours. Check back later today for updated guidance on models.

As of this time, no reconnaissance missions have been requested but 
this is likely to change by 12Z.  

Regardless of formation, heavy rainfall will continue over Cuba and 
Florida over the next several days. 

Repeating the current position as of 130 AM EDT (0530 UTC), 
Disturbance 90L is currently located at 17.9N and 85.6W with 
sustained winds at 25 kts and a central pressure estimated at 1009 
mb. 

The next Disturbance Guidance Message on this system will be at 1100 
AM EDT. Additional information on formation chances can be viewed on 
the Tropical Cyclone Outlook product issued by The Hurricane 
Network. 

This product will be replaced with advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclones beginning June 1 2018
This product is updated every six hours during an active area of interest in the Atlantic basin, this product will discussion a summary of the system, satellite discussion, model guidance, hazards affecting land, and aircraft reconnaissance missions.



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