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Archive for the ‘Guidance Messages’ Category

Disturbance 95L – Guidance Messages – Hurricane Network


Special Disturbance Guidance Message 1
The Hurricane Network New York NY        AL952018 
600 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2018

This special message issuance is to begin the discussion on 
Disturbance 95L. 

At 600 PM EDT (2200 UTC), Disturbance 95L is currently located at 
10.3N and 36.5W with sustained winds at 25 kts and a central 
pressure estimated at 1009 mb. 

Disturbance 95L remains disorganized due to very dry air in the 
proximity of the system. However, satellite data indicates a low-
level center is starting to form which indicates a tropical 
depression could soon be classified. Overall, some tropical storm-
force gusts have been estimated within the most intensive convection 
areas. 

ASCAT-B data indicates a low-level center is forming near the 
intense convection near 10.2N/37.1W. Surface winds are estimated to 
be in the range of 25 kt (30 mph). 

The recent 18z model guidance is in pretty good agreement through 
the entire forecast cycle in terms of track guidance which steers 
the storm around a high pressure system to the north of the system 
and moves the system towards the west-northwest. The track guidance 
brings disturbed weather over the Windward Islands, Virgin Islands, 
and Puerto Rico by 120 hr. In terms of intensity guidance, the 
envelope takes the system towards tropical storm status within 72 
hr. 

The limited factors of this system obtaining tropical cyclone status 
would be the dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer and 
increasing vertical shear near the Lesser Antilles. SHIPS guidance 
indicates shear by day 4 could approach 35 to 40 kt. 

Interests in the Lesser Antilles and Windward Islands should monitor 
the progress of this system. 

NHC is noting a possible low-level reconnaissance mission on Friday. 

Repeating the current position as of 600 PM EDT (2200 UTC), 
Disturbance 95L is currently located at 10.3N and 36.5W with 
sustained winds at 25 kts and a central pressure estimated at 1009 
mb. 

The next Disturbance Guidance Message on this system will be at 1100 
AM EDT. Additional information on formation chances can be found on 
the Tropical Cyclone Outlook product issued by The Hurricane 
Network. 



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Disturbance 90L – Guidance Messages – Hurricane Network


SPECIAL Disturbance Guidance Message 1
The Hurricane Network New York NY        AL902018 
130 AM EDT Tue May 22 2017

Special issuance to begin discussion on 90L, a full guidance message 
will be issued at 1100 AM EDT. 

At 130 AM EDT (0530 UTC), Disturbance 90L is currently located at 
17.9N and 85.6W with sustained winds at 25 kts and a central 
pressure estimated at 1009 mb. 

Recent satellite data indicates a broad area of low pressure has 
formed associated with an upper-level trough extending from Florida 
to the Yucatan Peninsula. Environmental conditions are currently not 
favorable for tropical cyclone formation but conditions are expected 
to become favorable later this week. As of the latest TCO, there is 
a moderate chance in the next five days for this system to form. 

Recent pass of ASCAT-B indicates an area of low pressure has formed.
Satellite data confirms winds on the western side of the disturbance 
is around 25 kt with higher gusts to near gale-force. 

Early model guidance for this system indicates a movement towards to 
the northwest for the next several days, there is currently limited 
guidance to project possible intensity and track outside the next 48 
hours. Check back later today for updated guidance on models.

As of this time, no reconnaissance missions have been requested but 
this is likely to change by 12Z.  

Regardless of formation, heavy rainfall will continue over Cuba and 
Florida over the next several days. 

Repeating the current position as of 130 AM EDT (0530 UTC), 
Disturbance 90L is currently located at 17.9N and 85.6W with 
sustained winds at 25 kts and a central pressure estimated at 1009 
mb. 

The next Disturbance Guidance Message on this system will be at 1100 
AM EDT. Additional information on formation chances can be viewed on 
the Tropical Cyclone Outlook product issued by The Hurricane 
Network. 

This product will be replaced with advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclones beginning June 1 2018
This product is updated every six hours during an active area of interest in the Atlantic basin, this product will discussion a summary of the system, satellite discussion, model guidance, hazards affecting land, and aircraft reconnaissance missions.



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