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Archive for the ‘Central Pacific Products’ Category

Hurricane MIRIAM Forecast Discussions – Hurricane Network


Hurricane Miriam – Public Advisories

EP152018 16

BULLETIN 
HURRICANE MIRIAM CYCLONE DISCUSSION 16
THN CENTRAL PACIFIC CENTER HILO HI
1100 AM HST WED AUG 29 2018 

Miriam has strengthened since the last The Hurricane Network 
advisory earlier this morning and the satellite presentation of 
Miriam indicates a hurricane has formed. Based on the visible 
satellite imagery and WindSat data, the initial intensity has been 
raised to 65 kt as Miriam enters the Central Pacific basin. 

Satellite fixes from CPC/THN and SAB/NOAA indicates that Miriam is 
nearing a upper-level ridge and is slowing down before taking a turn 
to the west-northwest and then northwest around an upper-level 
trough. After that time, the dynamic models for the 18Z suite show 
good agreement on northwestward movement. 

Miriam has the potential to strengthen slightly in the region it is 
in with little-to-no shear and decently warm waters, Miriam would 
only have about 24 hours to strengthen before an increase of 
vertical shear affects the cyclone. Within 84 hours, Miriam is 
forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone. 

Forecaster Apolo



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Hurricane Miriam Advisories – Hurricane Network


Hurricane Miriam – Forecast Discussions



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Hurricane LANE Forecast Discussions – Hurricane Network


Hurricane Lane – Public Advisories

EP142018 01

HURRICANE LANE CYCLONE DISCUSSION 1
THN CENTRAL PACIFIC CENTER HILO HI
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 21 2018 

Air force Hurricane Hunters continue to investigate severe Hurricane 
Lane. Lane is a well-defined hurricane with a 20NM eye feature. 
Based of the latest information from the reconnaissance plane Lane 
intensified earlier this morning to near-category five strength with 
winds of 135 kt (155 mph) and gusts up to 165 kt (190 mph) with a 
central pressure of 941 mb. With likely no changes since the latest 
aircraft fix, the intensity remains at 135 kt. 

The general motion of Lane is estimated by aircraft data at 285/8kt, 
this motion is expected to continue for the next six hours before 
moving northwestward around a ridge with low steering currents. 
Thereafter, there is a possibility of a weakness which will allow 
Lane to move northward on Thursday towards the main Hawaiian 
Islands. Early model guidance for this advisory cycle indicates the 
system could come very close or make landfall along the Big Island 
on Thursday. The latest forecast track is in guidance of the GFS and 
FSSE. 

Lane is currently in an area of low-shear and warn water 
temperatures, this could support the life-span of Lane through day 3 
before Lane moves into an area of strong vertical shear associated 
with a upper-level trough. There is a slight chance Lane could 
intensify further into a category five hurricane tonight. 

Key Messages: 

1. It is too early to determine if Lane will make a direct landfall 
on the main Hawaiian Islands. Users should remember, impacts from a 
large hurricane can be felt miles away from the center of 
circulation. Residents and visitors in Hawaii should prepare to 
protect life and property. 

2. Even though Lane might stay off-shore, hurricane-force winds are 
possible beginning on Thursday with life-threatening flash flooding 
from heavy rains associated with Lane. A Hurricane Watch is in 
effect for the Big Island and Maui, additional watches will be 
issued tonight. 

Forecaster Apolo



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Hurricane LANE Advisories – Hurricane Network


Hurricane Lane – Forecast Discussions

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Cyclone Advisories for HURRICANE LANE – Advisory 1 – 1100 AM HST
SEVERE HURRICANE LANE MOVING TOWARDS HAWAII

CURRENT INFORMATION..AS OF 500 PM EDT..

ABOUT 575 MI…925 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…155 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…941 MB
BASIN…CENTRAL PACIFIC

WARNINGS AND WATCHES

ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
*Maui County…including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
*Hawaii County

An additional hurricane watch will likely be issued for the northwestern islands tonight.

48-HOUR OUTLOOK

The eye of Hurricane Lane was located by a USAF Hurricane Hunter at
14.3 north and 153.2 west and moving towards the west-northwest at 9
mph, this general motion is expected to continue for the next 6 to
12 hours before a turn towards the northwest by Thursday.
Afterwards, Lane could move northward. On the forecast
track…Hurricane Lane is expected to be near the Hawaiian Islands
by Thursday afternoon.

For the full forecaster discussion go to
http://thehurricanenet.com/ep142018

LAND IMPACTS

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible somewhere within the
Hurricane Watch starting Wednesday, hurricane conditions forecast to
begin on Thursday.

RAINFALL: Lane is forecast to produce rainfall accumluations of 10
to 15 across the Hawaiian Islands with isolated amounts over 20
inches.

NEXT ADVISORY

The next advisory update will be at 200 PM HST
The next complete advisory will be at 500 PM HST

Forecaster Apolo



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