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Archive for the ‘Atlantic Products’ Category

Potential Tropical Cyclone SEVEN – Forecast Disucssions – Hurricane Network


Potential Tropical Cyclone SEVEN – Public Advisories

AL072018 01 
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN CYCLONE DISCUSSION 1
HURRICANE NETWORK PLYMOUTH NH
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2018

Advisories are being initiated on a potential tropical cyclone this 
evening as the disturbance THN has been monitoring for the past 
couple of days has become better organized. The initial intensity for 
this advisory is being set at 25 kt. The disturbance is moving 
through an area of low vertical shear and is forecast to become a 
tropical depression later tonight or early Monday. 

Because the disturbance has no closed circulation, the general 
motion is hard to indicate. Based of latest satellite fixes from 
SAB, the general motion is estimated to be at 300/13kt. The general 
model consensus is in pretty good agreement for the system to move 
into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and begin a motion of Northwest 
around an upper-level ridge located over the eastern coast of the 
United States and make landfall along the Gulf coast on Wednesday 
morning. 

The disturbance is expected to strengthen later tonight through 
Wednesday prior to landfall as it moves through a low shear 
environment with water temperatures along the forecast track of 30 
degrees Celsius. The system is forecast to be inland by Wednesday 
where then it will move along the upper-level ridge and absorb into 
a frontal zone. This general forecast is based on the ECMWF and HWRF 
guidance. 

KEY MESSAGES: 

1. A tropical storm watch has been issued for the north-central Gulf 
coast where tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 
48 hours. Heavy rainfall is expected along the Gulf coast this week 
due to the disturbance. 

2. Additional watches might be issued later tonight for the Florida 
Keys. Regardless, heavy rainfall and gusty winds will impact 
southern Florida and the Florida Keys on Monday.  

Forecaster Latteri



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Tropical Depression SIX Forecast Discussions – Hurricane Network


Tropical Depression Six – Public Advisories

AL062018 01 COR
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX CYCLONE DISCUSSION 1...CORRECTED
HURRICANE NETWORK PLYMOUTH NH
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance THN has been 
watching for the past several days has an organized low-level center 
with banding of convection around said center of circulation. With 
this information, advisories are being initiated on a tropical 
depression with an initial advisory intensity of 30kt based on a 
satellite fix at 1800 UTC from THN CPC. A surface observation 
station in Cape Verde Islands indicate the pressure of this system 
is around 1004 mb.

The depression is forecast to move into an area of warmer ocean 
temperatures and low vertical shear through the next 48 hours. The 
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or 
Saturday and continue to strengthen, later in the period there is a 
potential the depression could become a hurricane before shear 
increases and when the depression moves over much cooler water 
temperatures. For this cycle, the intensity forecast is in good 
agreement with the HWRF and IVCN. 

The general motion of the cyclone is about 270/13kt and this general 
motion is expected to continue through the next 12 to 24 hours as 
the cyclone moves around a subtropical ridge which is increasing the 
forward motion of the depression. The depression is forecast to move 
into a weakness of this ridge and move west-northwest to northwest 
later in the forecast period and move into the far eastern Atlantic 
away from any land. This track forecast is in line with the GFS and 
HWRF. 

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the southern Cape Verde 
Islands due to increasing tropical-storm-force winds over these 
islands, these winds are forecast to diminish later Saturday. Heavy 
rainfall on these islands could trigger life-threatening flash 
flooding. For additional information on these impacts, refer to your 
national weather organization. 

Forecaster Latteri



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Tropical Depression SIX Advisories – Hurricane Network


Tropical Depression Six – Forecast Discussions

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Cyclone Advisories for TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX – Advisory 1 – 500 PM EDT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG SOUTHERN CAPE VERDEISLANDS

CURRENT INFORMATION..AS OF 500 PM EDT

ABOUT 70 MI…115 KM SSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB
BASIN…ATLANTIC

WARNINGS AND WATCHES

ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER:

The Government of Cape Verde has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava.

* A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cape Verde Islands of Santiago, Fogo, Brava

48-HOUR OUTLOOK

The center of Tropical Depression Six was located at 13.8 degrees
north and 24.7 west and moving westward around 15 mph. This motion
is expected to continue for the next 12 hours before a general west-
northwest motion begins Saturday evening. On the forecast track,
Tropical Depression Six will pass just south of the Cape Verde
Islands.

Maximum sustained winds were recorded by surface observations and
satellite fixes of 35 mph, the depression is forecast to become a
tropical storm tonight or later Saturday.

The central pressure was estimated at 1004 mb.

For the full forecaster discussion go to
http://thehurricanenet.com/al062018-d

LAND IMPACTS

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the
southernmost Cape Verde Islands, this is forecast to continue for
the next 24 hours.

NEXT ADVISORY

The next intermediate advisory will be at 800 PM EDT
The next complete advisory will be at 1100 PM EDT

Forecaster Latteri



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