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Subtropical Storm ALBERTO Forecast Discussion – Hurricane Network


AL012018 000002

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO CYCLONE DISCUSSION 2
HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2018

Alberto continues to be highly unorganized with an mid-level low 
starting to form just off the coast of Cuba according to flight-
level data from the recent USAF mission, this mid-level low is 
likely to be the new developing surface circulation for Alberto. 
Initial advisory intensity remains the same as the last cycle of 35 
kt upon data from satellite and surface observations. Analysis of 
the upper-levels show that Alberto remains subtropical and is 
influenced by an upper-level trough. 

Alberto is moving slowly into the Gulf of Mexico with an eastward 
movement at 4kt or 090/4. Alberto is forecast to make a turn towards 
the north early Saturday morning and this motion will continue 
through the weekend before a move to the north-northwest begins 
towards the Louisiana and Mississippi border. The recent forecast 
track has not changed and the base of the forecast is upon GFS and 
HCCA trends. After landfall in the United States, Alberto will move 
once again northward. 

Models have trended semi-stronger during the initial 0Z runs but the 
general trend is the peak intensity of Alberto is 55kt right before 
landfall. However, the is a chance that Alberto could take a path 
over an area that is more conducive for significant intensification 
and could make it close to hurricane strength prior to landfall. The 
intensity forecast for Alberto is in line with SHIPS and IVCN. If 
trends continue, NHC would be required to issue a hurricane watch 
for portions of the Gulf coast later Saturday afternoon. 

KEY MESSAGES: 

1. Alberto is expected to produce a significant amount of rainfall 
across much of the Gulf coast through Tuesday with flash flooding 
likely as Alberto slows down prior to landfall. 

2. Tropical storm-force winds and storm surge are possible along 
the Gulf coast watch areas starting Sunday morning. Interests in the 
Gulf coast should monitor the latest forecast information and listen 
to local officials on potential evacuations and other guidance. 

Forecaster Ryan



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Subtropical Storm ALBERTO Advisories – Hurricane Network


AL012018 0000001

BULLETIN 
SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY 1
HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK NY
500 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND STORM SURGE WATCHED ISSUED FOR UNTIED 
STATES...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF 
COAST...


CURRENT INFORMATION..AS OF 500 PM EDT
-------------------------------------
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E AT 2 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
BASIN...CARIBBEAN

WARNINGS AND WATCHES
--------------------
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Indian Pass to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

For storm information specific to your area, consult your National 
Weather Service office at weather.gov. Interests outside of the 
United States should consult their national meteorological agency. 

48-HOUR OUTLOOK
---------------
At 500 PM EDT, the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located 
195 miles south-southwest of the western tip of Cuba or at 19.4 
north and 86.3 west. Alberto was barely moving east at 2 MPH 
recorded by a USAF Hurricane Hunter aircraft, this slow motion will 
continue through tonight. The general northern motion with a faster 
forward speed is forecast for Saturday. On the forecast track, 
Alberto is forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 
hours. 

Sustained winds were measured by a USAF Hurricane Hunter at 40 mph, 
additional strengthening is forecast to occur and Albert to could 
reach near-hurricane strength before U.S. landfall. Central pressure 
was recorded about 1005 mb 

For the full forecaster discussion go to 
http://thehurricanenet.com/al012018-d

LAND IMPACTS
------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 24 
hours along Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical storm 
conditions in the watch area for the United States are possible in 
48 hours. 

RAINFALL: Alberto is forecast to produce rainfall totals of up to 
20 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba, these 
rains could produce flash flooding and mudslides. In the United 
States, Rainfall is forecast of up to 16 inches along the Gulf 
coast with locally higher amounts as Alberto slows down near the 
coast.  

STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is possible across much of the 
Storm Surge Watch area. The water could reach 2 to 4 feet above 
ground during high tide for Horseshoe Bach to the Mouth of the 
Mississippi River. 



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next intermediate advisory will be at 800 PM EDT 
The next complete advisory will be at 1100 PM EDT



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