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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms remain displaced to the west of a broad
area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Although a
tropical depression is still likely to form during the next day or
so, the system is forecast to encounter progressively cooler waters
and a drier, stable airmass over the weekend, which will inhibit any
further development.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is
associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the early or middle portions
of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10
mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Gibbs