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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of the Southern Tip of the Baja California Peninsula (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms remain displaced well to the west of a
broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Although a tropical
depression is still likely to form during the next day or so, the
system is forecast to encounter progressively cooler waters and a
drier, stable airmass over the weekend, which will inhibit any
further development.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is
associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions
could support some gradual development of this system during the
next several days while it moves generally west-northwestward at 5
to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



Forecaster Reinhart