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Potential Tropical Cyclone SEVEN – Forecast Disucssions – Hurricane Network


Potential Tropical Cyclone SEVEN – Public Advisories

AL072018 01 
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN CYCLONE DISCUSSION 1
HURRICANE NETWORK PLYMOUTH NH
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2018

Advisories are being initiated on a potential tropical cyclone this 
evening as the disturbance THN has been monitoring for the past 
couple of days has become better organized. The initial intensity for 
this advisory is being set at 25 kt. The disturbance is moving 
through an area of low vertical shear and is forecast to become a 
tropical depression later tonight or early Monday. 

Because the disturbance has no closed circulation, the general 
motion is hard to indicate. Based of latest satellite fixes from 
SAB, the general motion is estimated to be at 300/13kt. The general 
model consensus is in pretty good agreement for the system to move 
into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and begin a motion of Northwest 
around an upper-level ridge located over the eastern coast of the 
United States and make landfall along the Gulf coast on Wednesday 
morning. 

The disturbance is expected to strengthen later tonight through 
Wednesday prior to landfall as it moves through a low shear 
environment with water temperatures along the forecast track of 30 
degrees Celsius. The system is forecast to be inland by Wednesday 
where then it will move along the upper-level ridge and absorb into 
a frontal zone. This general forecast is based on the ECMWF and HWRF 
guidance. 

KEY MESSAGES: 

1. A tropical storm watch has been issued for the north-central Gulf 
coast where tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 
48 hours. Heavy rainfall is expected along the Gulf coast this week 
due to the disturbance. 

2. Additional watches might be issued later tonight for the Florida 
Keys. Regardless, heavy rainfall and gusty winds will impact 
southern Florida and the Florida Keys on Monday.  

Forecaster Latteri



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