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Tropical Depression SIX Forecast Discussions – Hurricane Network


Tropical Depression Six – Public Advisories

AL062018 01 COR
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX CYCLONE DISCUSSION 1...CORRECTED
HURRICANE NETWORK PLYMOUTH NH
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance THN has been 
watching for the past several days has an organized low-level center 
with banding of convection around said center of circulation. With 
this information, advisories are being initiated on a tropical 
depression with an initial advisory intensity of 30kt based on a 
satellite fix at 1800 UTC from THN CPC. A surface observation 
station in Cape Verde Islands indicate the pressure of this system 
is around 1004 mb.

The depression is forecast to move into an area of warmer ocean 
temperatures and low vertical shear through the next 48 hours. The 
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or 
Saturday and continue to strengthen, later in the period there is a 
potential the depression could become a hurricane before shear 
increases and when the depression moves over much cooler water 
temperatures. For this cycle, the intensity forecast is in good 
agreement with the HWRF and IVCN. 

The general motion of the cyclone is about 270/13kt and this general 
motion is expected to continue through the next 12 to 24 hours as 
the cyclone moves around a subtropical ridge which is increasing the 
forward motion of the depression. The depression is forecast to move 
into a weakness of this ridge and move west-northwest to northwest 
later in the forecast period and move into the far eastern Atlantic 
away from any land. This track forecast is in line with the GFS and 
HWRF. 

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the southern Cape Verde 
Islands due to increasing tropical-storm-force winds over these 
islands, these winds are forecast to diminish later Saturday. Heavy 
rainfall on these islands could trigger life-threatening flash 
flooding. For additional information on these impacts, refer to your 
national weather organization. 

Forecaster Latteri



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