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Hurricane LANE Forecast Discussions – Hurricane Network


Hurricane Lane – Public Advisories

EP142018 01

HURRICANE LANE CYCLONE DISCUSSION 1
THN CENTRAL PACIFIC CENTER HILO HI
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 21 2018 

Air force Hurricane Hunters continue to investigate severe Hurricane 
Lane. Lane is a well-defined hurricane with a 20NM eye feature. 
Based of the latest information from the reconnaissance plane Lane 
intensified earlier this morning to near-category five strength with 
winds of 135 kt (155 mph) and gusts up to 165 kt (190 mph) with a 
central pressure of 941 mb. With likely no changes since the latest 
aircraft fix, the intensity remains at 135 kt. 

The general motion of Lane is estimated by aircraft data at 285/8kt, 
this motion is expected to continue for the next six hours before 
moving northwestward around a ridge with low steering currents. 
Thereafter, there is a possibility of a weakness which will allow 
Lane to move northward on Thursday towards the main Hawaiian 
Islands. Early model guidance for this advisory cycle indicates the 
system could come very close or make landfall along the Big Island 
on Thursday. The latest forecast track is in guidance of the GFS and 
FSSE. 

Lane is currently in an area of low-shear and warn water 
temperatures, this could support the life-span of Lane through day 3 
before Lane moves into an area of strong vertical shear associated 
with a upper-level trough. There is a slight chance Lane could 
intensify further into a category five hurricane tonight. 

Key Messages: 

1. It is too early to determine if Lane will make a direct landfall 
on the main Hawaiian Islands. Users should remember, impacts from a 
large hurricane can be felt miles away from the center of 
circulation. Residents and visitors in Hawaii should prepare to 
protect life and property. 

2. Even though Lane might stay off-shore, hurricane-force winds are 
possible beginning on Thursday with life-threatening flash flooding 
from heavy rains associated with Lane. A Hurricane Watch is in 
effect for the Big Island and Maui, additional watches will be 
issued tonight. 

Forecaster Apolo



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