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Severe Thunderstorms Possible Across Central, East TX Tonight, South TX, Much of LA, West MS Tomorrow – Gulf Coast Storm Center

The front associated with our upper-level storms system is draped across North Texas this evening; it will slowly slide into Central and South Texas tonight/early tomorrow,  Louisiana and West Mississippi late tomorrow, and the remainder of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Thursday.

Both heavy rain and strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected along/ahead of the front.


Strong thunderstorms — some potentially severe — will develop across Central/East Texas from the Brush Country into Northeast Texas this evening and tonight, and to congeal into a squall line.

Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for today/tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a “slight risk” area. Damaging wind gusts and large hail remain the expectant primary threats.


The  squall line will still be pushing across portions of East Texas early tomorrow, and will progress into South Texas early tomorrow morning, and Louisiana and West Mississippi late tomorrow/early Thursday as shown by the NAM.

Figure 3. NAM simulated radar valid at 4:00 AM CDT Thursday.


Some embedded severe thunderstorms will be possible. The SPC has hatched a “slight risk” area encompassing all of South Texas, much of Louisiana, and West-Central Mississippi.

Per the afternoon update from the SPC, an upgrade to higher risk (likely “enhanced”) is possible sometime tonight or tomorrow.

Damaging straight-line winds, hail, and isolated tornado or two still look to be the main threats as of now.


The squall line will push into South east Louisiana, the remainder of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle — though, it could be weakening by this time.

Some strong/severe thunderstorms will be possible.

Figure 4. Severe weather outlook for Thursday.

The SPC has defined a “slight risk” area, which is the area with the greatest potential for severe weather.

Damaging winds and a brief, isolated tornado or two appear to be the main threats. However, some small hail can’t be ruled out.

Heavy Rain

Not much has changed in regard to heavy rain and the possibility of flash flooding.

Figure 5. Latest 7-day QPF outlook.

Storms tomorrow through Thursday will produce widespread heavy rain. Accumulations of 2 – 5″  are forecast from East Texas into Northwest Alabama, and now only 1 – 2″ for Central and the rest of North Alabama.

Flash flooding will be possible — mainly across Northeast Texas, North Louisiana, North/Central Mississippi, and Northwest Alabama, where the highest rainfall totals are forecast.


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The post Severe Thunderstorms Possible Across Central, East TX Tonight, South TX, Much of LA, West MS Tomorrow appeared first on Gulf Coast Storm Center .

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