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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112018) – NHC



…TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR TWO… As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 22 the center of Eleven was located near 13.2, -53.8 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.



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Tropical Depression 11 forms, Watching 3 Other Areas in the Atlantic – My Fox Hurricanes


We are in the heart of Hurricane season and watching 4 areas of possible development in the Atlantic. A disorganized area of showers and storms sitting south of Bermuda will struggle to overcome wind shear the next several days. It only has a 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. A non-tropical area of low pressure is developing 900 miles south of the Azores. but will remain over the open Atlantic.

Tropical Depression 11 has developed but only has 35 mph winds and will likely become a remnant low over the next 36 hours. It will slowly move westward towards the Lesser Antilles, bringing some gusty winds and heavy rain early next week.

The area of low pressure 500 miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is getting better organized and it appears a tropical depression is forming. Models are in good agreement on a westward track over the next week. It won’t impact any land areas for some time.



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FIU at Hurricanes: It’s Battle for the 305. But, c’mon, fellas … PLAY NICE!; plus why Dolphins will beat Raiders and rest of our NFL Week 3 predictions & more



… : FIU (2-1) AT NO. 21 HURRICANES (2-1): OK, FELLAS … PLAY  NICE … front of ESPN2 cameras, the Hurricanes coming off a solid win … likely see Saturday. My pick: Hurricanes, 41-20. OTHER STATE COLLBALL: There …



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Tropical Update | Tropical Depression Eleven not a Threat; 99L Likely to Become a Tropical Depression Soon – Gulf Coast Storm Center


Figure 1. 12:00 UTC (9/22/18) track guidance for 99L | Credit: NCAR

Tropical Depression Eleven (TD 11) developed east of the Windward Islands and Lesser Antilles last night, but is not much of a threat. Meanwhile, Invest 99L is on the way to becoming Tropical Depression Twelve south of the Cabo Verde Islands.


TD 11: As of the 5 AM EDT/AST advisory, max sustained winds were 35 mph and the minimum central pressure was 1007 millibars. Movement was slowly west at 5 mph.

Satellite imagery this morning shows that 30-40 kts of westerly shear is ipacting TD 11. This is causing the convection to remain displaced to the east of the center of circulation.

Track: A weakness in the Bermuda high will allow for a general west-northwest track through this weekend.

Intensity: This is redundant, but nothing has changed. The environment surrounding TD 11 is extremely hostile. Strengthening is not very probable, with dissipation likely by tomorrow well east of the Windward Islands/Lesser Antilles.


Invest 99L: Since coming off of Africa, 99L has been getting gradually better organized. Organization is continuing this morning. There is moderate to strong convection near the center based on satellite imagery. A recent ASCAT pass also suggests that the center of circulation is closed.

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Wind shear is a light 5 – 10 kts through about 40 degrees west longitude.  Although, water vapor satellite imagery suggests that there is some dry air just to the north. Considering the low shear, 99L should organize further even with the presence of some dry air.

In their 00z runs, the ECMWF (euro), GFS, and UKMET all predicted development of 99L, with the latter remaining the most aggressive.

It is possible, if not likely, that 99L becomes a depression sometime today if current organizational trends continue. In their 8 AM EDT tropical weather outlook (TWO), the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave 99L an 80% chance of developing over both the next 2 and 5 days.

99L is going to track generally west through the middle of this upcoming week (see figure 1). Environmental conditions will remain generally conducive for at least the next 3 days, and 99L should become a tropical storm at some point.


Invest 98L: No change with 98L. Strong upper-level winds (shear) and dry air are still impeding any subtropical/tropical development. There will be a brief window from Monday – Tuesday for some development. However, upper-level winds look to increase again late Tuesday/Wednesday. The euro, GFS, and UKMET continue to predict only weak development of 98L.

In the morning TWO, the NHC gave 98L a 30% chance of developing over the next 5 days,

Should a tropical/subtropical cyclone form from 98L,  it will be a tropical depression or storm at the most.

An anticyclonic loop is still expected, with potential for a track fairly close to the East Coast mid week next week.


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The post Tropical Update | Tropical Depression Eleven not a Threat; 99L Likely to Become a Tropical Depression Soon appeared first on Gulf Coast Storm Center.



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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook – NHC




113
ABNT20 KNHC 221111
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven, located about 500 miles east of the Windward
Islands.

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better
organized near the center of a low pressure system located about
500 miles south of the southern Cabo Verde Islands, and a tropical
depression appears to be forming. If these trends continue,
advisories will be initiated on this system later today while the
low moves westward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of
Bermuda is producing only minimal shower activity. Strong upper-
level winds are expected to diminish by Sunday or Monday, which
could allow for some slow development of this system while it moves
westward and then northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic
Ocean. By the middle of next week, upper-level winds are likely to
strengthen again, which would limit additional development as the
system moves closer to the southeastern coast of the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

Satellite imagery indicates that a non-tropical low pressure system
is forming along a frontal boundary about 900 miles west-southwest
of the Azores. Conditions are expected to become conducive for the
low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a
subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form by early next week
while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. For more
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$ $
Forecaster Brennan



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NASCAR Federated 400 race could face brief delays this evening – (Accuweather)



The NASCAR Playoffs will continue tonight at the Richmond Raceway amid warm and potentially unsettled weather.



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No, global warming isn’t causing worse hurricanes



… a familiar drumbeat, recognizable from Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Sandy. For … hurricanes has been falling since 1900, as has that of major hurricanes … not seeing an increase of hurricanes. Yes, hurricane costs keep escalating … over whether global warming intensifies hurricanes, together pointed out that the …



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NHC Atlantic Outlook – NHC




Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Outlook Image

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Eleven, located about 500 miles east of the
Windward Islands.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have been increasing since last evening
near the center of a low pressure system located about 550 miles
south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the low moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at
about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of
Bermuda is producing minimal shower activity. Strong upper-level
winds are expected to diminish by late this weekend or early next
week, possibly allowing for some slow development of this system
while it moves westward and then northwestward over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean. By the middle of next week,
upper-level winds are likely to strengthen again, which would limit
development as the system moves closer to the southeastern coast of
the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

3. A non-tropical low pressure system is forming along a frontal
boundary about 850 miles west-southwest of the Azores. Conditions
are expected to be conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is
likely to form early next week while the low meanders over the
central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Forecaster Berg



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Cool air to overtake northeastern US during first days of fall – (Accuweather)



The arrival of cooler, less humid air in the northeastern United States will coincide with the first days of fall this weekend.



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Lethbridge Hurricanes battle Medicine Hat Tigers in home opener




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