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Tropical Update: Watching Kirk’s Remnants for Redevelopment – Gulf Coast Storm Center


 

Figure 1. Latest 5-day graphical tropical weather outlook

Kirk officially degenerated yesterday morning at the 11 AM EDT/AST advisory. This is because an ASCAT pass revealed that there was no closed center. It appears that fast forward speed and dry air were the cause of dissipation.

While no longer a tropical cyclone (TC), Kirk’s remnants remain a fairly sharp trough/wave axis. There is potential for redevelopment over the next day or two while they continue to track westward, as upper-level winds (shear) will be somewhat conducive. However, dry air and the fast forward speed will continue to work against reorganization.

Figure 2. GFS  200 – 850 mb wind shear forecast valid at 06z Thursday | Credit: Tropical Tidbits

By Thursday/Friday, upper-level winds will become highly unfavorable (see figure 2) — meaning redevelopment will become very, very unlikely. Also, if Kirk’s remnants do reorganize into a TC, upper-level winds would result in dissipation.

The 00z ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET all predicted redevelopment of Kirk between today and tomorrow.

Per the 8 AM EDT tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave the remnants of Kirk a 60% chance of developing over both the next 2 – 5 day, respectively.

Note: we will have an update on 98L later today.


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The post Tropical Update: Watching Kirk’s Remnants for Redevelopment appeared first on Gulf Coast Storm Center.



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Advisory #008 Forecast [shp] – Subtropical Depression Leslie (AT3/AL132018) – NHC



Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 08:40:00 GMT



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Summary for Subtropical Depression Leslie (AT3/AL132018) – NHC



…LESLIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT… As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 25 the center of Leslie was located near 31.9, -46.2 with movement SE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.



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Over 100 million people to face the threat for dangerous, violent storms during midweek – (Accuweather)



Summerlike warmth and humidity surging back into the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Northeast will set the stage for a multi-day severe weather outbreak following a brief taste of fall last weekend.



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Tropical Depression Twenty-E – East Pacific



Updated: 4am EST Tue Sep 25 2018
ep201820

Wind: 34 MPH | Location: 14.5N 107.2W | Movement: W

More Information:
Tracking Map
Public Advisory
Discussion
Coordinates
Computer Models




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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-E (EP5/EP202018) – NHC



…TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO… As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 the center of Twenty-E was located near 14.5, -107.2 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.



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Over 100 million people to face dangerous, violent storms during midweek – (Accuweather)



Summerlike warmth and humidity surging back into the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Northeast will set the stage for a multi-day severe weather outbreak following a brief taste of fall last weekend.



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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook – NHC




136
ABNT20 KNHC 250515
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Subtropical Depression Leslie, located about 1200 miles
west of the Azores.

A broad area of low pressure located about 300 miles south of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce showers and
thunderstorms on its north side. Satellite data indicate that the
circulation of the low is elongated and not well organized.
However, this system could still become a tropical depression later
today while it moves northwestward. By tonight and Wednesday,
additional development appears unlikely, due to strong upper-level
winds, while the system moves northward and north-northeastward near
the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this system will likely enhance rainfall across portions
of northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina later
today and tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip
currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast
today. For more information, please see products from your local
National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

The remnants of Kirk are located about 1100 miles east of the
Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at around 25 mph.
This system continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms, along with winds to gale force on its north side.
However, satellite data indicate that the system still lacks a
closed circulation. This disturbance could redevelop into a
tropical cyclone during the next couple of days before it moves
into an area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it
approaches the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and
Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance as
gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely even if the system
does not redevelop into a tropical cyclone. For more information on
this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Subtropical Depression Leslie is forecast to become post-tropical
tonight after it merges with a cold front over the central Atlantic.
After that time, Leslie could reacquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics by the end of the week as it meanders over the
central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$ $
Forecaster Cangialosi



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