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Archive for the ‘Tropical Storms’ Category

Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Advisory Number 17 – NHC



Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017

  000 WTPZ22 KNHC 211458 TCMEP2   TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072017 1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017   THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.   TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 119.2W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM   PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   9 KT   ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  45SE  45SW  90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.   REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 119.2W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 118.7W   FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.4N 120.7W MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW. 34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.   FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.7N 122.8W MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW. 34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.   FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.9N 125.1W MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW. 50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW. 34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  80NW.   FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 127.4W MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW. 34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.   FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.2N 130.8W MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW. 34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.   EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY   OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 17.1N 133.9W MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.   OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.5N 136.5W MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.   REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 119.2W   NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z   $  $   FORECASTER BLAKE     



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Summary for Tropical Storm Greg (EP2/EP072017) – NHC



…GREG MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH 60-MPH WINDS… As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 the center of Greg was located near 15.1, -119.2 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.



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Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Advisory Number 16 – NHC



Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017

  000 WTPZ22 KNHC 210841 TCMEP2   TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072017 0900 UTC FRI JUL 21 2017   THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.   TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 118.3W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM   PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   9 KT   ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  45SW  90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.   REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 118.3W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 117.8W   FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.8N 119.7W MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW. 34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.   FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.3N 121.8W MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW. 34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.   FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.6N 124.0W MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW. 34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  80NW.   FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.7N 126.1W MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW. 34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.   FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.0N 130.0W MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW. 34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.   EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY   OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 16.4N 133.3W MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.   OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.0N 136.0W MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.   REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 118.3W   NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z   $  $   FORECASTER ZELINSKY     



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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook – NHC




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Greg, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure centered several hundred miles south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for the formation of a tropical
depression during the next couple of days before upper-level winds
become unfavorable for development. This system is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph through early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with a tropical wave over the far eastern Pacific
southwest of Central America. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become increasingly favorable for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later today or tomorrow while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

$ $
Forecaster Blake



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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook – NHC




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210508
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Greg, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad area
of low pressure centered several hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of this
system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10
mph, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave continue
to show signs of organization over the far eastern Pacific southwest
of Central America. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
increasingly favorable for development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form by early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

$ $
Forecaster Zelinsky/Pasch



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Summary for Tropical Storm Greg (EP2/EP072017) – NHC



…STATUS QUO WITH GREG AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH 50-MPH WINDS… As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 the center of Greg was located near 14.3, -117.4 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.



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Tropical Storm Fernanda Forecast Advisory Number 36 – NHC



Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 20 2017

  000 WTPZ21 KNHC 202034 TCMEP1  TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062017 2100 UTC THU JUL 20 2017  THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.  TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 140.4W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM  PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.  REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 140.4W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 139.9W  FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.5N 141.9W MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.  FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.0N 143.7W MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.  FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.6N 145.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.  FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.2N 147.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.  FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 151.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.  EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY  OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 156.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.  OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED  REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 140.4W  THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP1...WMO HEADER WTPA21 PHFO.  $  $   FORECASTER BEVEN   



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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook – NHC




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202344
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Greg, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. The National Hurricane Center
has issued its last advisory on Tropical Storm Fernanda, located
several hundred miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, and the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Eight-E, located more than a thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Future advisories on Fernanda will be issued by the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad area
of low pressure centered several hundred miles south-southwest of
Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development of this system while it moves westward to
west-northwestward around 10 mph, and a tropical depression is
expected to form well southwest of Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave are
showing increasing signs of organization over the far eastern
Pacific southwest of Central America. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become increasingly favorable for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form by early next week
while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fernanda are issued under WMO
header WTPA31 PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fernanda are issued under WMO
header WTPA21 PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP1.

$ $
Forecaster Landsea



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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook – NHC




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fernanda, located more than a thousand miles east of Hilo,
Hawaii, on Tropical Storm Greg, located several hundred miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and
on Tropical Depression Eight-E, located more than a thousand miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
centered several hundred miles south of Mexico continue to show
signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development of this system while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression is
expected to form well southwest of Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers in the far eastern Pacific
southwest of Central America are associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly
favorable for development, and a tropical depression will likely
form by early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

$ $
Forecaster Blake



Go to Original Gulf Coast Hurricanes Article

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook – NHC




000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201130
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fernanda, located more than a thousand miles east of Hilo,
Hawaii, on Tropical Storm Greg, located several hundred miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and
on Tropical Depression Eight-E, located more than a thousand miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms centered about 600 miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico, are showing some signs of organization in
association with a broad low pressure system. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this
system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph, and a tropical depression is expected to form well southwest of
Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers in the far eastern Pacific
near and west of Central America are associated with a tropical
wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly
favorable for development, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

$ $
Forecaster Blake



Go to Original Gulf Coast Hurricanes Article
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