The first healthy Cape Verde tropical wave of the season, Invest 95L, organizes Sunday in the South Central Atlantic. Showers and thunderstorms continue to organizecenter but there is no low level circulation. As of Sunday morning the National Hurricane Center ups 95L’s chances of becoming a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Chantal to 40% by Tuesday morning. Currently shear is low at 5-10 kts, but by Tuesday upper level winds become a little more hostile. There is also some dry air to its north and west which may inhibit significant organization. Invest 95L quickly tracks west at 25 mph and may approach the Lesser Antilles by Tuesday. Its fast forward motion may also limit significant organization in the short term. Computer models indicate Invest 95L will track west northwest in the coming days. That puts the Lesser Antilles, and possibly Puerto Rico, The Dominican Republic, and Haiti in its path. There is plenty of time to watch the track and intensity of Invest 95L. Typically the Saharan Air Layer limits longtime organization of Cape Verde tropical waves in early July. Usually these types of tropical waves have a better chance of organzing if they form in late July and early August. With that being said, a new region of convection south of the Cape Verde Islands is also worth watching. If 95L can close off on enough dry air to it’s west it may strengthen early this work week. The yellow/orange color on the graphic below indicates dry dusty air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Meanwhile deep tropical moisture lingers in the northwest Gulf of Mexico associated with a tropical disturbance. While tropical development is no longer expected, areas of heavy rain will affect east Mexico, Texas and part of the western Gulf coast through Monday. Some of this will be welcome rain to coastal Texas as parts of the area experience extreme drought conditions. Coastal Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle saw flooding rains last week and may see another 1-1.5″ by Tuesday morning (according to the Weather Prediction Center).
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Invest 95L Organizes in Atlantic