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Nadine May Threaten the Azores Next Week

Tropical Storm Nadine maintains its intensity over the past 24 hours as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. The main area of deep convection is situated near or just northwest of its center, but cloud tops especially on the east side of the storm are broken in spots. Nadine remains elongated from west to east due to moderate shear. In fact, 30-40 kt shear nearly surrounds the tropical storm on its west, north, and east side. Shear is being enhanced by a trough across the western Atlantic. This trough will guide Nadine northeast starting this weekend. The first image below shows the magnitude of shear currently surrounding Nadine estimated by the WRF shear forecast model. The second image shows how this increased shear environment will stay in Nadine’s path 72 hours later (Sunday into Monday). As of 11AM, despite shear, the National Hurricane Center strengthens Nadine to a category one hurricane Sunday morning. The Azores may be affected by a strong tropical storm mid week next week. Hurricane Gordon struck this region in late August. A tropical wave sparks scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southern Atlantic. This region is over 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and it is disorganized in nature early Friday. Slow development is possible, but drier air and moderate shear sit west of the tropical wave. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 10% chance of becoming a depression or Tropical Storm Oscar by Sunday. A weakening frontal boundary sits between Florida and Cuba Friday. Along the trough are two areas of showers and thunderstorms: one in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and one near the Bahamas. These areas of convection are non tropical in nature, but this is the time of year that tropical cyclones can development along old frontal boundaries. These areas of convection may dissipate all together as the diffuse trough fizzles over the next 24 hours. The 06Z GFS develops a surface area of low pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday. This system brings heavy rain and thunderstorms across the Southeast. Another front dives across the Southeast and stalls across the Gulf mid week. Enormous Super Typhoon Sanba approaches the island of Okinawa in Japan with sustained winds of 155 mph winds mid day Friday (U.S. time). This is comparable to category five hurricane. South Korea is in the path of Sanba early next week.

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Nadine May Threaten the Azores Next Week

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